Where will young voters make the most impact this year?
A tour of 2024 Youth Electoral Significance Index.
Recent election cycles have featured unprecedented levels of youth political participation. Voter turnout among young people ages 18-29 jumped by double digits between the 2016 (39%) and 2020 elections (50%) and between the 2014 (13%) and 2018 (28%) midterms; and it remained historically high in 2022. Turnout among college students also increased, reaching 40% in 2018 and 66% in 2020, according to the National Study of Learning, Voting, and Engagement.
Examining the youngest generation of voters as a whole—and their potential electoral impact —provides a context for the younger student voters this Substack focuses on, while also addressing many core issues. Whether or not they’re in college, young people face enduring narratives of apathy that can drive disinvestment in engaging this rising electorate. To combat those false perceptions and highlight young adults’ growing clout, we created the Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI).
What is the Youth Electoral Significance Index?
At the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE; a part of Tufts University’s Tisch College of Civic Life), we bring rigorous, nonpartisan data to bear on questions about young people’s electoral participation and impact. Each general election cycle, we produce the non-partisan Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI), a research-based ranking of the top states and districts where young people have the highest potential to influence electoral outcomes.
The YESI is based on more than a dozen individual indicators that are associated with high potential for youth electoral participation and impact. While necessarily focused on competitive elections where young people can sway outcomes, the YESI goes beyond simply listing battleground states and districts. It exemplifies the ways data can illuminate the dynamics that drive youth voting, and reveals the work that’s still needed to grow voters, eliminate gaps in engagement, and ensure every young person can have an impact on our democracy.
You can explore the full YESI race rankings here.
Most of the data corresponds to what, according to research, improves or promotes youth voting:
Access to information and opportunities for electoral engagement,
Support for civic participation, and a
Culture that sustains and makes voting meaningful
These three elements, central to our CIRCLE Growing Voters framework, can manifest differently in different communities, but add up to high potential for youth engagement.
Access and Opportunity
Within the YESI, we look at multiple data points to measure the level of opportunity for youth to learn about and participate in elections. Voter registration, for example, is not just a prerequisite for voting in nearly every state—it can also make young people more likely to be contacted by campaigns who rely on voter rolls, or lists of registered/likely voters, for outreach. Michigan has one of the highest youth registration rates in the country and ranks #5 for potential youth impact in both its presidential and Senate race, and the state’s 7th congressional district is #1 on our U.S. House list.
Election laws are also key measures of access: some states make it easier to register and vote, while others make it harder. Our index considers policies like automatic voter registration, pre-registration at age 16, and same-day registration—as well as restrictive policies like voter ID laws. A state like Nevada, which has multiple facilitative registration policies and mails a ballot to every registered voter, is #6 in both our presidential and Senate rankings.
Support for Participation
Information that an election is occuring isn’t enough: young people need supportive pathways to engage in electoral politics and civic life. That can take many forms, including educational and community institutions that can serve as political homes for youth.
Colleges and universities are often key nonpartisan political homes where young people learn about elections and engage with political ideas. Youth who are, or have been, in college vote at much higher rates, and our race rankings reflect that. Arizona, for example, a top-3 state for both its presidential and Senate elections, has a very high college enrollment rate.
The YESI’s Youth Investment Index combines several data points on potential support for youth which point to civic infrastructure for youth development. It includes the percentage of nonprofits in a state that are focused on youth, and the state’s level of spending on K-12 education, which can be associated with more support for nonpartisan civic learning. Georgia, the #2 state in our presidential rankings, scores particularly highly on youth investment.
Connection to Culture
Access and support help create a culture in which voting is expected and exciting and connected to something meaningful to young people. It’s no surprise that a handful of states, like Minnesota and Colorado, have some of the highest youth turnout rates in the country year after year. Some of that is due to the structures and policies in place, but these communities have also managed to build a culture of participation.
The YESI considers past youth voter turnout precisely because voting becomes habitual. Young people who participate in elections early in life are more likely to continue participating; voting becomes not just something they do, but who they are. States like Minnesota and New Hampshire are in the presidential race top 10, in part, because of their strong past turnout.
Youth may also be more motivated to vote when they realize they have the power to shift policies and politics in their communities. We include data on the partisan preferences of youth compared to older voters; where youth vote very differently than older adults, their ballots have even more impact.
For example, according to 2020 exit polls, 18- to 29-year olds in Utah split their votes almost evenly between former President Trump (48%) and President Biden (47%). Meanwhile, voters over age 45 preferred Trump by more than 30 points. Utah has the highest proportion of youth in its population of any state in the union. This sort of dynamic (regardless of direction of older adult support) can contribute to a sense that youth have the power to influence political conversations and political calculus if they participate.
Acknowledging and Highlighting Inequality
Finally, the Youth Electoral Significance Index includes demographic and socioeconomic data. Because of persistent, structural deficiencies in the ways that people have access to democratic participation, there are major inequalities by race, education, and income in youth voter turnout. We acknowledge and incorporate into the index the ways that may shape young people’s participation and impact in 2024.
We also include this data because it shows that, in communities where structural inequalities may make voter engagement more difficult, there are still myriad ways to support young people and grow voters. States like Arizona and Nevada have significant populations that, according to historical trends, have a lower likelihood to vote. But they are still among the top states for youth impact because of policies and supportive structures conducive to voting.
The Upshot
While the YESI focuses on a handful of key states where youth can have a major impact this November, its data also serves as a roadmap for what it takes to improve and sustain young people’s electoral participation in the long run. Individuals and organizations that don’t see their state in our top 10 can see what’s working in other states and districts, and consider how to increase access and support for youth in their own communities.
As they have in recent cycles, young people will undoubtedly have an impact on elections this November. The strength of that impact, whether it continues into the future, and whether it expands to all youth across the country will largely depend on efforts by young leaders, parties, civic organizations, and communities to reach and grow voters. The Youth Electoral Significance Index can serve as a critical tool to show that young people deserve attention.